Work in Progress:
- Caggiano Emanuele, “Lobbying in the US: companies’ reaction to an unexpected political change”
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between campaign donations and lobbying, utilizing a comprehensive dataset to track firms’ economic and political engagements. We test the hypothesis that firms use electoral campaign financing as an insurance strategy using an event study framework. Our results show that firms that did not finance the electoral campaign increased their lobbying expenditures by 47% following the unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016, in contrast to the non-reactive behavior observed after Obama’s 2012 election. Additional analyses confirm the central hypothesis, indicating that firms adjust their lobbying based on electoral outcomes. The study also incorporates a heterogeneity analysis using public procurement data to understand how firm revenue dependencies with the public sector affect the decision to increase lobbying expenditure. The study also incorporates a heterogeneity analysis using public procurement data to understand firm sensitivities further. - Caggiano Emanuele and Lorenzo Rocco, “Bipartisan Firms”
Abstract: This study investigates the dynamics of corporate campaign contributions in U.S. presidential elections from 1992 to 2020, using a comprehensive dataset that combines financial data from the Bureau van Dijk with contributions data from the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP). The research focuses on the propensity, intensity, and distribution of funds donated by corporations across political parties. The results indicate that while corporations tend to adopt a bipartisan donation strategy, they exhibit a notable preference for the Republican Party. Additionally, as political polarization between parties increases, so does the likelihood and total amount of corporate contributions, particularly in non-research-oriented sectors. Specifically, an increase in political polarization is associated with a 2% increase in the probability of donating and a 21.8% rise in total contributions. This study contributes to the understanding of how corporate political behavior is shaped by both internal financial characteristics and external political risks. - Caggiano Emanuele, Enrico Rettore, Lorenzo Rocco. “Synthetic Data In Economics”
Abstract: This study investigates the use of synthetic data in economic research as a solution to challenges such as privacy restrictions and data scarcity. To assess the validity of synthetic data, we replicate two influential studies—Moretti 2013 and Arenberg et al. 2024—using data generated through Variational Autoencoders. The findings reveal that synthetic data effectively retains the analytical value of real data while ensuring privacy compliance. By benchmarking synthetic datasets against their real counterparts, we demonstrate their reliability in reproducing critical insights, emphasizing their potential to enhance data accessibility and ethical data use.
Policy Work:
Abstract:
The attempt to provoke early elections in August 2019 by the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, unexpectedly led to a pragmatic coalition of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) and the formation of a second government under Giuseppe Conte. This government operates in a fragile political equilibrium where a fear of early elections, which could pave the way for Matteo Salvini to power, is the main stabilising factor. The pragmatic political calculation of the PD and M5S supported by Matteo Renzi’s new party “Italia Viva” may be enough to maintain the coalition for a certain time, but it will not generate any major growth incentives for Italy, which are crucial in maintaining the sustainability of public debt.