Publication:
Abstract:
The attempt to provoke early elections in August 2019 by the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, unexpectedly led to a pragmatic coalition of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) and the formation of a second government under Giuseppe Conte. This government operates in a fragile political equilibrium where a fear of early elections, which could pave the way for Matteo Salvini to power, is the main stabilising factor. The pragmatic political calculation of the PD and M5S supported by Matteo Renzi’s new party “Italia Viva” may be enough to maintain the coalition for a certain time, but it will not generate any major growth incentives for Italy, which are crucial in maintaining the sustainability of public debt.
Work in Progress:
- Caggiano Emanuele, “Lobbying in the US: companies’ reaction to an unexpected political change”
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between campaign donations and lobbying, utilizing a comprehensive dataset to track firms’ economic and political engagements. We test the hypothesis that firms use electoral campaign financing as an insurance strategy using an access-seeking/ex-post-mitigation model and an event study framework. Our results show that firms that did not finance the electoral campaign increased their lobbying expenditures by 47\% following the unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016, in contrast to the non-reactive behavior observed after Obama’s 2012 election. Additional analyses confirm the central hypothesis, indicating that firms adjust their lobbying based on electoral outcomes and potential government impact on profitability. The study also incorporates a heterogeneity analysis using public procurement data to understand firm sensitivities further. - Caggiano Emanuele and Lorenzo Rocco, “Bipartisan Firms”
Abstract: This study investigates the dynamics of corporate campaign contributions in U.S. presidential elections from 1992 to 2020, utilizing an extensive dataset compiled from the Bureau van Dijk and the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP). Our analysis identifies the determinants that influence a firm’s decision to finance political campaigns, focusing on the propensity to donate and the allocation of funds across political parties. Our findings reveal that while corporations generally adopt a bipartisan approach to donations, there is a marked preference for the Republican party. Moreover, as political polarization increases, firms not only increase their total contributions but also disproportionately allocate more funds toward the Republican party. Our results have highlighted the interplay of economic factors in corporate donation strategies and firms’ strategic adjustments in response to the evolving political landscape. - Caggiano Emanuele and Luisa Corrado. “Measuring the Effects of European Central Bank Communication using Speeches”
Abstract: This paper, using textual analysis, studies the effect of the European Central Bank’s board members’ speeches on Eurozone government bond yields from the beginning of 1999 to October 2019 using a novel dataset recently released by the ECB. It develops an automated methodology by applying a lexicon approach to evaluate each speech objectively. The results find evidence of the effects of communication by ECB board members on bond interest rates for all maturities. By defining polarised sentiments that arose after the different speeches, the study also investigates which speaker has been more efficient in communicating the ECB strategies and in reassuring financial markets.